Hulks Forum Articles Projections Rankings Metric Stats Pro Resources Football Links
 
In-Season Features
Weekly Rankings


2009 Breakout Wide Receivers
Vince Bavaro
7/20/09

The combination of talent, experience, and opportunity lead us to believe that a high percentage of these receivers will breakout this season.  When appropriate for your squad on draft day, stack up on these guys to increase your odds of owning one or more breakout hulks.

DEFINITE BREAKOUT
 
Anthony Gonzalez, IND - The kid has caught an impressive 73% of the passes thrown his way in his first two years, proving to be a reliable target for Peyton Manning.  He is a cerebral ballplayer, which is a key to success in Manning’s play calling system.  Before he was drafted to the NFL in ‘07, I once heard Gonzo say in a radio interview that he models his game after Marvin Harrison.  Not a bad player to mimic, especially from his quarterback’s perspective, so it’s a perfect scenario in year-three.  We project him at 80/1056/8, but he has a chance to catch 90-100 passes if the Colts pass offense takes it up a notch this year.  Potential PPR treasure.  Average Draft Position- 5.5 (12-team standard)
 
PROBABLE BREAKOUT
 
Donnie Avery, STL- Avery was the first receiver selected in the NFL draft last year and while his final stat line wasn’t phenomenal (53/674/3), he emerged as a go-to-guy by the end of the season for his brutal squad.  Avery captured the attention of fantasy nation in Week 8 when he exploded against New England for 163 yards and a touchdown on just six catches, flashing big play ability all over the place.  With the declining Torry Holt out of town, Avery is now the No. 1 option in the passing game and a Football Outsiders favorite.  After much team improvement this offseason, we expect the Rams offense to bounce-back, equaling nice numbers for Avery and Steven JacksonADP- 7.11
 
Devin Hester, CHI- We at Fantasy Hulks believe in Hester’s ability as a wide receiver.  Here in Chicago, all offensive coordinator Ron Turner does is rave about Hester, vouching for him as a true No. 1 WR.  Hester’s improvement at the position is seemingly non-stop and Jay Cutler’s big arm is perfect for Hester’s skill set.  Cutty will hit him on deep throws that Kyle Orton failed to make.  Hester is a nice WR3 with WR2 potential and any punt return success would simply be a bonus.  ADP- 8.10
 
Dominik Hixon or Hakeem Nicks, NYG- One of these two is going to hulk up opposite Steve Smith who we see as a fixture in the Giants starting lineup.  Until further notice, Hixon our favorite pick out of all Giants WRs.  He has boom-or-bust written all over him but teammate Mathias Kiwanuka predicts a Hixon breakout.  Kiwanuka also raves about Hixon’s speed.  Nicks is a stud and worth a draft pick, but odds are not with rookie receivers making an immediate fantasy impact.  Hixon ADP- 9.10, Nicks ADP- 12.6

Josh Morgan, SF- Morgan is one of our favorite prospects and we fully expect him to match or exceed rookie Michael Crabtree’s production this year.  Last year Morgan showed hulk flashes when he dominated preseason until he got sick with a serious virus and lost 15 pounds.  He returned to the field and put up an impressive 16 yards per catch, but was limited due to a groin injury (12 games).  Morgan was the offensive star at minicamp and has experience over Crabtree, so take notice.  Plus, he can be had nearly 100 picks after Crabtree in fantasy drafts.  ADP- 17.2
 
Mark Clayton, BAL- Many in fantasy nation expected Clayton to breakout in past years, only to be disappointed.  He put up nice numbers in ’06 (67/939/5), but has been a fantasy dulk since then.  In light of Derrick Mason’s retirement (if it sticks) and Joe Flacco’s growth, maybe this is the year it’ll come together for Clayton.  I like the fact that his style is similar to Mason’s, which makes him a potential PPR treasure as the Ravens No. 1 WR.  Bump him down to POSSIBLE (below) if Mason comes back.  ADP- 10.11
   
POSSIBLE BREAKOUT
   
Miles Austin, DAL- Austin is Football Outsiders 2009 No. 1 prospect and when the Outsiders talk, we listen.  No matter the current depth chart, we expect him to be the Cowboys' No. 2 WR with Patrick Crayton moving back to the slot where he belongs.  Austin only has 18 career catches but he averaged a gaudy 21.4 yards per catch last year.  Austin reminds me a lot of Vincent Jackson physically and both were raw coming out of college.  The Cowboys organization and coaching staff expect him to breakout this season.  Wide receivers coach, Ray Sherman, calls Austin a "beast" and say's "it's coming".  Keep an eye on his hamstring injury.  ADP- 14.9

Ted Ginn Jr., MIA- I don’t buy Ginn as a true No. 1 WR at the NFL level like Miami drafted him for, but as their default No. 1 he can breakout this year in his third season.  Head coach Tony Sparano calls Ginn one the Dolphins top two most improved players this offseason and has said he has looked “dominant” at times.  The knocks on him are his hand strength and beating the bump at the line, but his catches and yards have increased in each of his first two years.  Look for that trend to continue this year at 60-70 catches.  ADP- 10.2

Steve Smith, NYG- As I mentioned above, Smith has been a reliable target whenever the Giants have put him on the field so we don’t see him leaving the starting lineup this year.  His hands were key in their Super Bowl run in ’07 and he had 57 receptions last year, mostly coming off the bench.  We like Hixon better because he offers more all-around bang for your buck, including touchdown upside, but Smith is a potential PPR treasure.  ADP- 12.12

Davone Bess, MIA- Bess has just as good a chance as Ginn to be the Dolphins best receiver this year and you can draft him six rounds later.  According to one Miami beat writer, he wouldn’t be surprised if Bess is “the most dynamic WR on the roster”.  Bess came on strong late last season, racking up 35 catches the last six weeks while being target heavily (8.2/game) during that span.  That projects to 130 targets for a 16-game season.  With Greg Camarillo recovering from ACL surgery, we fully expect Bess to be a fantasy factor this year in his second season.  Potential PPR treasure.  ADP- 16.1

Mark Bradley, KC- Odds are that Bradley won’t stay healthy long enough to breakout, but he has a nice opportunity starting opposite Dwayne Bowe in KC’s pass-happy attack.  He has always displayed talent on the field, but knee injuries have limited him to just 44 games in his five-year career.  He finished last season strong, putting up 380 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games and we all know how head coach Todd Haley used his wide receivers in Arizona.  ADP- 17.3
 
Mike Walker, JAC- Lingering knee injuries cost Walker most of his first two seasons in the league, but he says he’s healthy now and ready to start alongside Holt.  This offseason has been Walker’s first healthy one as a pro and Dennis Northcutt’s release gives him a clear path to a starting gig.  He ran a 4.35 40-yard dash back at the ’07 Combine and if his knees hold up this year, he has a serious chance to be the Jags top-producing wideout.  For what it’s worth, Maurice Jones-Drew, who loves fantasy, says that Walker is his pick to breakout this year (FantasyGuru magazine). ADP- 20.3







 
 
 
 
Copyright © 2008-2010 FantasyHulks.com. All Rights Reserved.