Before I start my direct analysis on the effect Jay Cutler will have on Matt Forte’s stats, I would first like to show a trend I found while researching rookie running backs with similar rookie seasons as Matt Forte and what they did in their second year.  Here is what I targeted: Backs with at least 1600 yards from scrimmage and at least 30 catches in their rookie year (in the last 15 years only).  These are the backs that met the criteria:

* Fred Taylor only played 10 games in 1999 due to injury.  He was on pace for a very similar season in his second year

Aside from Taylor, who was injured in his second year, all of these backs played as legit first round fantasy players the next season.  Ignore the fact that some of these guys actually declined in fantasy points. The bottom line is that they still produced excellent seasons any owner would be happy with as first round picks.  This trend is great, but it certainly isn’t the last word on Forte in ‘09.  Now, let’s look at the new biggest influence on Forte’s fantasy season… Jay Cutler.

RUSHING

Cutler’s true affect on Forte’s rushing stats is very difficult to determine.  There aren’t a ton of instances where an average quarterback was replaced by a near-superstar QB where you could clearly see it affect the running back’s numbers.  In fact, last year when Favre was traded to the Jets is the best example in recent history. 

Thomas Jones was a poor running back in ‘07 with Chad Pennington as the starting quarterback.  He averaged 3.6 yards per carry with only two total TDs.  With Brett Favre at the helm in ‘08, Jones’ numbers skyrocketed to a 4.5 YPC and 15 total touchdowns.  Should all the credit of Jones’ incredible statistical improvement go to Favre?  Hell no!  The Jets also added Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca and Pro Bowl fullback Tony Richardson, and they both played major roles as well.

Let’s say that they all played an equal part in Jones’ 0.9 YPC improvement, which was an increase of 25% from the year before.  Meaning each of them added 8.3% to Jones’ YPC.  This is not the perfect approach to trying to find Farve’s impact on Jones’ YPC.  Maybe Favre influenced his YPC more or maybe less than Faneca and Richardson, but I think this is a good start to assessing Cutler’s affect on Forte’s YPC.  If you bring Forte’s YPC 8.3% up from his 3.9 last year, you arrive at a healthy 4.225 YPC.  This is very conservative.  Cutler is special and his arm has the respect of the opposing team’s defense.  It is not out of the question that Forte’s YPC nears 4.5.   

So the next question is, how many carries will Forte get? The run/pass ratio of Ron Turner’s offense is dependant upon how good the defense is.   When the defense plays well, the Bears have a near 50% run/pass ratio because they try to control the clock.  In the last couple years, as the defense has diminished, they have favored the pass much more.  They have averaged only 429 rushes the last 2 years and you can count on it to hover around the same total because that defense is not getting any younger or better and could be even worse. 

But Forte won’t reach the 316 carries he did last year even though the Bears total rushes should be about the same. This is because they can afford to rest Forte more often now with Cutler.  It was essential Forte was in on as many plays as possible last year because he was easily the most talented player and gathered the most attention from the defense.  This season I think Forte will lose about two carries a game due to resting about one series per game more than last year. That gives him a projection of 284 carries.

Approximate rushing yards with Cutler: 4.225 YPC * 284 carries = 1200

RECEIVING

On the forums around the web I’m seeing nearly everyone anticipating Forte’s receptions to drop.  This is a good forecast.  I was thinking the same thing off the top of my head. The perceived thought is that Cutler throws downfield more than Orton and that equals less dump-offs to Forte.  You shouldn’t expect those receptions to drop off too far though.

It is true Cutler’s completions to runningbacks were low last year.  He only completed 43 passes to running backs.  This is most likely due to the fact the Broncos started six different running backs during the year.  Cutler was unable to get in a groove with any of his running backs in the passing game.  But he did show he will throw to a good receiving back like Peyton Hillis, if that’s what the defense gives him.  In Week 7 he completed seven passes to Hillis for 116 yards and a TD.

I think what you need to look at is Selvin Young’s catches in 2007.  He started eight games and had 23 catches in those games started.  This translated into a full 16-game season and we’re looking at 46 catches for Young.  Everyone can agree that if Young can grab 46 with Cutler, Forte can reach 50 catches.  Forte is a better receiver than Young, not to mention a larger focus in the offense.  Mike Shanahan also used a west coast scheme like Ron Turner’s.  So they both implement a lot of short passes in the offense.

I’m not going to get cute with Forte’s yards-per-reception so I’ll use last year’s 7.6 average.  I’m also going to be ultra conservative with Forte’s catches and give him the same total as Selvin’s projected full season receptions from 2007.

Approximate receiving yards with Cutler: 7.6 YPR * 46 catches = 350

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here’s the way I see it shaping up:

LT – Pace
LG – Beekman
C – Kreutz
RG – Omiyale
RT – Shafer and Williams
Bench – Williams, Garza/Omiyale

The Bears appear to have some decent depth on the offensive line and I actually think they have an outside shot at being a HULK group.  The have a wildcard in Chris Williams.  If he shapes up and becomes the first-round lineman the Bears hoped he’d be when they drafted him, this could be a real nice group.  Chances are that won’t happen but I will say they won’t be any worse than last year.  Orlando Pace adds instant wisdom to the line.  John Tait was a great tackle but he was on the back end of his career and the Bears wont miss St. Clair either.

EARLY-BIRD PROJECTION

Referring back to the second year RB research from earlier in the article, I think Forte falls right in line with these other backs in their second years.  The average was a 4% decrease in fantasy points from their rookie seasons.  In fact, Forte has the luxury of a huge quarterback upgrade and is possibly in-line for an offensive line upgrade.  Here is my Floor/Ceiling for Forte.

 
Forte should lose some touches but nothing drastic.  His final numbers will be around the same even with a reduction in total attempts because he will be more efficient when he touches the ball.  The most important thing to take from this analysis is that Forte is ultra low risk.  I think his total yards from last year are near his ceiling but given the fact the Bears should move the ball up-field more effectively with Cutler, and therefore be in the red zone more, Forte could be in line for a couple more TDs in ‘09.