There were so many huge surprises in week 1.  Some of them seemed to materialize from thin air, but I’m here to show you certain indicators that could have helped you predict some of these shockers.

Hines Ward’s 2 TDs: If you try and think of how productive Hines Ward was last year, it gets a little fuzzy.  What did he have 5, 7 TDs?  Wasn’t he out for like 3 quarters of the season?  Hines was not a popular value pick in drafts and at times, the draft buzz behind Santonio Holmes made it seem like there was only one WR on the Steelers.  But if you take a look at our 07’ Hulkemetrics chart, you might have seen this coming a mile away.

First of all, notice that Ward averaged 9 targets per game last year.  We said in Hulk’s Mansion that it puts him amongst some of the top fantasy WRs in the game.  The most important indicator on this chart is his red zone targets (RZ Att).  With 21, he was 8th in the league despite missing 3 games and 19% of his total targets were in the red zone.  Only Randy Moss had a better ratio than that.  Ward also received 31.5 % of the team’s passes during his 13 games played.  That percentage is even higher than Moss’s and only Brandon Marshall received a larger percentage of his team’s passes (on a per game basis).

From this data there’s no doubt you could have seen that Ward gets the opportunities needed to be a top fantasy producer in this offense again, and after week 1, its apparent he still knows how to capitalize.

Michael Turner’s Monster Game: It certainly was hard to be confident that Michael Turner was going to be a legit RB2.  I always thought there was a shot he could be really good, as did most others. But because of the Falcons weak offense and the possibility they were going to start a rookie QB, Turner’s risk was too great in comparison to his potential reward.  But after Turner’s great preseason you could have pushed some doubts aside about him by following the “RB long run/high YPC carryover trend”.

Although you shouldn’t read into preseason numbers too much, I have noticed a trend for running backs.  Young running backs in preseason that 1) have a long run or more than one long run of over 40 yards and 2) have a YPC at or above 4.5, usually produce well into the season.  Here are some examples:

2005	Long	YPC	Season Result
Larry Johnson	97	7.1	18 TDs
2006
Brandon Jacobs	57	5.3	9 TDs
Maurice Jones-Drew	41	4.6	13 TDs
2007
Adrian Peterson	43	4.5	13 TDs

  

     

 

 

This isn’t 100% foolproof. Some backs meet the criteria in preseason but don’t get the attempts during the season.  In Turner’s case you knew he was going to get the touches, so the fact that he had two huge runs over 40 yards (one being 63) and a 4.5 YPC should have confirmed your gut feeling about him after seeing this preseason trend.  The Falcons line played excellent in preseason as well.  Certainly didn’t look like the bottom-feeder line everyone said they were.  I expect Turner to keep high-end RB2 status all year.

FAST STATS

More Preseason RB Talk: There were other fantasy-relevant running backs other than Turner to have a run over 40 yards and YPC at or above 4.5.  Here is the list:

2008	Long	YPC
Michael Turner	63	4.5
DeAngelo Williams	60	7.2
Jonathan Stewart	50	4.7
Chris Johnson	66	5.5
Ray Rice	42	5.6

This is a bigger list than usual to meet the criteria but I think all of these running backs will be good this year. And all of them started off the season well except for Rice.

Reggie Bush's Numbers: The most important stat for Reggie Bush on Sunday was 26.  He had a 26-yard run which marked the longest of his career (surprised?).  This could actually show progress in his running game instead of the regression we saw from him last year.  But then again maybe not, his YPC for the game still hovered around his career average of 3.8.  Here is one thing to ponder though, Bush’s YPR (yards per reception) for the game, was 14.0.  His YPR all of last year was 5.7 and the highest he had in a single game was 10.  My colleague Mac Bavaro commented to me over the summer that Bush’s lack of explosiveness was due to him playing hurt.  That is quite apparent when you consider the difference in YPR.  This game also marked the 2nd highest offensive yardage total of his career.  Not since his rookie yard have I seen this type of optimistic potential from him.  Keep in mind though that I still do not believe he is a full time runner.  He is a specialist, and for that reason I’m not sure you should ever expect him to put up RB1 numbers.  That being said, owners that grabbed him, as an RB2 should feel encouraged he will produce like one throughout the year.
. 
Matt Forte Mayhem: You know his game against the Colts was no fluke because it was against one of the top defenses against the run last year.  They gave up an average of 3.8 yards per carry last year and the same players were back for week 1.  Forte tore them up to the tune of over 5 YPC.  Also the Bears offense will be better than expected if they scored 29 points against last year's top scoring defense that only gave up 16.4 points per game.  A rookie hasn’t run for that many yards in their first game since Cadillac Williams did it in 2005.  He went on to break the century mark his next three games in a row. 

McNabb Hype:  McNabb had the best fantasy line of the week among quarterbacks.  Sorry to say, but this was probably the best game he’s going to have all year.  He had two long plays amounting to 137 yards and a TD that shouldn’t have happened. On both the 90-yard touchdown to Baskett and DeSean Jackson’s 47 yard play, the DB was in position but failed to make the play.  This would never happen if the Eagles weren’t playing St Louis, one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Read my lips: Offer him straight up for Jay Cutler.

Check in next week as I take a glimpse into Julius Jones huge opportunity in week 2, and also dissect Dwayne Bowe’s situation in KC. And always remember, “Fantasy is an art, not a science.”