• Quarterbacks

• Running Backs

• Wide Receivers

• Tight Ends

• Defense

• Kickers

The Numbers Game provides weekly numerical explanations to player performances around the NFL.  Certain indicators can predict outcomes week in and week out.

Julius Jones working solo: All Julius Jones needed was to catch a break in order to solidify his spot as the #1 RB in Seattle.  That break came when Maurice Morris got injured.  I knew that if Julius just had one full game to work he would impress behind this offensive line.  They just needed to get in the groove.  I felt this because I knew Seattle’s new and improved left side was well suited for Jones’ running style, and it shows in the numbers.  Take a look at these stats based on rushing direction for his career:

Notice that Jones’ YPC is drastically higher running to the left and he has gained a lot more yards overall to the left side.  Seattle’s strength is running to the left because of all-pro LT Walter Jones and newly acquired former all-pro LG Mike Wahle.  Putting those two strengths together should keep Jones churning and getting the majority of the carries all year, even when Morris comes back.

Doomsday in Kansas City: Larry Johnson’s meltdown this year isn’t surprising to us.  His circumstances eerily reminded us of Shaun Alexander going into the 2007 season.  He got injured the year before but had a handful of good games that made you think he still had the goods. This was the same case with LJ last year.  The thing is that Alexander had the lowest Hulk Score out of all the running backs with over 130 touches in 2006.  Look what happened to him in 2007! Now take a look at Larry Johnson’s Hulk Score in 2007.  It is the lowest of any RB with over 130 touches.  The bottom line is: expect LJ to have a year similar to Alexander’s last year.

Dwayne Bowe is getting a fair share of targets this year. He has 22 through the first two weeks, which is certainly the amount a hulk wide receiver needs to see. But here’s the problem, Bowe doesn’t get enough red zone targets.  He had 8 all of last year.  That was 48th among receivers.  He also isn’t quite the deep threat you want to see from a receiver that doesn’t get enough red zone looks.  He had 2 plays over 40 or more yards last year.  Now that the 3rd string QB is throwing him balls, you can expect even less red zone targets and less long plays.  The offense was bad last year but this year it is twice as bad and that is scary.  So yes, he is getting a lot of targets this season, but as a Bowe owner I would be extremely worried.

Jonathan Stewart and Chris Johnson: Last week’s Numbers Game showed that Stewart and C. Johnson are in the preseason RB “long run/high YPC” group.  Here is another reason to be excited about them:

Above is a list of the top rookie RBs from the 2008 draft.  This chart monitors college production by finding running backs’ Fantasy Points Per Touch in their last year of college (2007 FPPT).  It also monitors their Mass-to-Speed ratio.  A ratio of 1 or more indicates the RB is fast for his size.  Johnson and Stewart have the second and third highest production-weighted Mass-to-Speed ratios, respectively, in the last 3 years. They’re only behind Maurice Jones-Drew.  Here are the other rookie RBs from the past 3 drafts that had a ratio of 1.03 or more:

I listed the RBs over 1.03 because in the 3 years that I’ve done this analysis, that is the benchmark ratio for being effective at the NFL level.  From this analysis you can see there was a hell of a lot of RB talent in the 2008 draft, for one thing.  I think Jonathan Stewart and Chris Johnson are just a cut above the rest though, and are absolutely can’t miss physical specimens.  They haven’t failed to disappoint anyway you look at it.  Feel smart if you own them.  Towards the end of the year they will give you that push you need to get into the championship. 

*At a later date I will backdate this analysis to NFL draft classes before 2005.  And I’ll post the results in the Hulkemetrics (Metric Stats) section.  I will also explain the final equation in-depth.

FORECAST STATS

The Arrival of Steve Smith: Steve Smith is going to really help out your team if you had the testicular fortitude to select him even though you knew he was missing two games.  Moose Muhammed has been starting in his place so far and has received 21 targets.  If Smith retains Moose’s average of 10.5 targets a game for the next 14 games, hell likely grab 86 receptions.  I came to this by multiplying the 10.5 targets by 14 games = 147 targets.  Then I took his catch % from last year, .59, and multiplied that by 147 to get 86.  Keep in mind that his .59 catch % from last year was low for him because of the quarterback merry-go-round last year.  So how many TDs will he get?  For Smith’s career he averages a TD every 11.4 catches.  That projects him to get approximately 8 TDs (86/11.4), for the remainder of the season.  So mark this in the book Steve Smith owners: 86 Rec/1187 Yds/8 TDs in 14 games. Not too shabby.

Arizona Sky Coverage:  Write this down. Expect your quarterback to produce much less when he goes against ‘Zona.  Here are JT O’Sullivan’s and Chad Pennington’s yardage totals this year when they were not facing Arizona:  321 and 251.  Here are the yardage totals when they faced Arizona: 195 and 112.  That’s a 47% average decrease in yardage when playing the Cardinals!  Not a good play for most.

Check in next week. Always remember “Fantasy is an art, not a science.”