The Numbers Game provides numerical explanations to player performances around the NFL. Certain indicators can predict outcomes week in and week out.
Favre Forecast: Brett Favre now has 12 TDs in only four games. Only four quarterbacks have thrown 11 or more TDs through the first four weeks of the season since 2002. They are:
2007- Tom Brady
2007- Tony Romo
2005- Donovan McNabb
2004- Peyton Manning |
13
11
11
11 |
If you average the final season TD totals of these four players/seasons you get a whopping 38 TDs! That is also including McNabb’s 2005 season where he was injured and only ended up with 16 TDs. It’s hard to go against this strong trend if Favre doesn’t get injured. I think it’s relatively safe to say Favre will throw 30 TDs and it’s certainly possible he could throw 35-40.
Double Drew: Drew Brees has the most passing yards, 1373, through the first four weeks of the season since Drew Bledsoe had 1345 through the first four weeks in 2002. Bledsoe ended up finishing the season with 4359 yards, 24 TDs and 15 INTs. Expect Brees to certainly beat these numbers though. The guy has lost his best WR and TE, and with Lance Moore now developing into the #2 WR the Saints have been craving for, it will be double trouble for defenses once Colston gets back.
Is your Tight End in this group?: Top TE fantasy production is correlated to the amount of targets they receive, much more so than WRs. Since 2005, if your TE ended up top 10 in targets, there was a 70% chance they end up top 10 in fantasy points.
Here are the tight ends targeted at least five times per game so far in 2008:
Player |
Team |
G |
Targets |
Targets/G |
Kellen Winslow |
CLE |
4 |
38 |
9.5 |
Tony Gonzalez |
KC |
4 |
34 |
8.5 |
Jason Witten |
DAL |
4 |
28 |
7.0 |
Owen Daniels |
HOU |
3 |
20 |
6.7 |
Jeremy Shockey |
NO |
3 |
20 |
6.7 |
Jerramy Stevens |
TB |
2 |
12 |
6.0 |
Antonio Gates |
SD |
4 |
23 |
5.8 |
Chris Cooley |
WAS |
4 |
22 |
5.5 |
Randy McMichael |
STL |
4 |
21 |
5.3 |
Visanthe Shiancoe |
MIN |
4 |
20 |
5.0 |
John Carlson |
SEA |
3 |
15 |
5.0 |
LJ Smith |
PHI |
3 |
15 |
5.0 |
Tony Scheffler |
DEN |
4 |
20 |
5.0 |
QUARTER-SEASON RED ZONE REPORT
Quarterbacks:
Rank |
Player |
Team |
RZ Att |
TD |
TD/RZ Att |
1 |
Jay Cutler |
DEN |
33 |
9 |
27% |
2 |
Kurt Warner |
ARI |
33 |
8 |
24% |
3 |
Matt Schaub |
HOU |
32 |
4 |
13% |
4 |
Brett Favre |
NYJ |
31 |
12 |
39% |
5 |
Brian Griese |
TB |
28 |
4 |
14% |
6 |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
27 |
6 |
22% |
7 |
Jason Cambell |
WAS |
25 |
6 |
24% |
8 |
JaMarcus Russel |
OAK |
24 |
4 |
17% |
9 |
J.T. O'Sullivan |
SF |
23 |
4 |
17% |
10 |
David Garrard |
JAC |
22 |
2 |
9% |
11 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GB |
21 |
6 |
29% |
12 |
Philip Rivers |
SD |
20 |
10 |
50% |
13 |
Matt Ryan |
ATL |
20 |
2 |
10% |
14 |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
19 |
4 |
21% |
15 |
Drew Brees |
NO |
18 |
8 |
44% |
16 |
Tony Romo |
DAL |
18 |
8 |
44% |
17 |
Derek Anderson |
CLE |
18 |
3 |
17% |
18 |
Matt Cassel |
NE |
17 |
2 |
12% |
19 |
Chad Pennington |
MIA |
15 |
2 |
13% |
20 |
Carson Palmer |
CIN |
15 |
1 |
7% |
21 |
Jake Delhomme |
CAR |
15 |
3 |
20% |
22 |
Peyton Manning |
IND |
13 |
3 |
23% |
23 |
Matt Hasselbeck |
SEA |
13 |
2 |
15% |
24 |
Trent Edwards |
BUF |
11 |
4 |
36% |
25 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
8 |
4 |
50% |
Thoughts:
- Shocked that Matt Schaub is third in QB RZ attempts. He hasn’t capitalized, but good to see the offense is moving the ball
- It’s apparent that the Steelers are turning their back on the passing game when in the red zone. This might change with their recent RB injuries
- Tony Romo and Drew Brees are producing TDs despite the fact there isn’t a focused passing attack in the red zone
- Peyton Manning is just less efficient this year in all areas. If he doesn’t show improvement this week after a week off, be worried
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