Here’s a look at players who underperformed last year that we fully expect to rebound in 2009. They were disappointments for a variety of reasons and I’ll tell you reasons to believe they’ll bounce back.
If you were burnt by anyone on this list last year, don't be afraid to pick him again this year. A true fantasy hulk turns the page and doesn't hold grudges against players who can help him win NOW. Last year was last year. This is a new year son! For those who hold grudges, stop and remind yourselves of trophies and cash.
Note: I didn’t include any players who missed a bunch of games due to injury, such as S. Jax and Marques Colston. It’s easy to say that those two will produce this year as long as they’re healthy and on the field. The players below were on the field plenty and simply did not produce.
Reggie Wayne, WR Colts- Last year’s 82 receptions, 1145 yards, and six touchdowns is not the worst stat line ever, but it’s not typical of a Colts No. 1 WR or a second round fantasy pick. Wayne’s three-year average prior to last season was 91/1292/8, including a huge 104/1510/10 season in ’07. Have faith in Wayne and Peyton Manning’s body of work and expect the abovementioned three-year average as worst-case scenario in ‘09.
Ryan Grant, RB Packers- Everyone, including us, expected first round production from Grant last year after he exploded in '07, but a holdout and hamstring injury prevented him from hulking up. His play improved as the year went on, but his big-play ability was non-existent, as his yards per carry dropped to 3.9 from 5.1 a year before. This year his contract is in place, with performance-based incentives I might add, so he can focus on preparing for the season. He's healthy and ready for a big workload. Like many football heads, we expect a big year out of the entire Packers offense, including Grant.
Braylon Edwards, WR Browns- Edwards is confident heading into the 2009 season and offseason trade rumors only added fuel to his fire. Plus, the weight of the world won’t be on the Browns shoulders heading into the season like a year ago. Even including last season’s stats, Edwards’ three-year average is 65/1015/8, so we expect something along those lines at least. Don’t fear his drops, because a receiver can still put up big numbers along with a significant drop total. See T.O.
Chad Ochocinco, WR Bengals- This Twitter fanatic has worked hard this offseason, starting from “square one” to rediscover the old Ochocinco. He credits actor Denzel Washington for telling him to “straighten up and stop fussin” when they spoke at a Lakers game. 85 recently admitted that last offseason he “didn’t lift one weight or run one route” because of shoulder and ankle injuries. Add that to a bad attitude and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s weak arm, you’ve got 53 catches, 540 yards, and four TDs. In his previous five seasons, Ochocinco averaged an unreal 92/1374/9. Carson Palmer has declared himself 100% healthy with full confidence in his arm and team. As long as we keep hearing good news out of Cincy, we’ll believe in a Chad bounce-back.
Santonio Holmes, WR Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger's numbers were down last year, so naturally Holmes’ were disappointing as well. Holmes was inconsistent on-the-field and in trouble with Mary Jane off-the-field, but he produced against the toughest opponents in the most clutch situations, including perhaps the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. He added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason to be a more physical, "complete" receiver and he's been pleading for more targets. Sounds like this might be the year he overtakes Hines Ward as the No. 1 WR and a fourth-year boom similar to Roddy White is possible.
Chris Cooley, TE Redskins- While Cooley set a career-high in receptions (83) and yards (849), he caught only one touchdown last year. That’s a far cry from his 6.75 average TDs per season in his first four years in the league. Head coach Jim Zorn has also promised Cooley that he’ll score at least six touchdowns this season, so fuggetaboutit.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB Steelers- We don't expect Big Ben to return to 2007 TD numbers (32) but we don't expect him to be as bad as last year either (17). Somewhere in the middle, around 24-25 touchdowns, sounds about right. An offseason of rest will certainly help him physically and his second Super Bowl victory will add to his confidence. We believe he’ll outplay his eighth round draft slot, so scoop him as a late QB1. Keep an eye on this sexual assault thing though.
David Garrard, QB Jaguars- Garrard and the Jags suffered last year largely in part to their injury-depleted O-line, but he still managed to throw for a career-high 3620 yards in the down year. The O-line is healthy now and includes two beast rookie tackles. Garrard now has a legit NFL WR in Torry Holt and a supposedly healthy Mike Walker to throw to, which only helps. In ’07, Garrard threw 18 touchdowns in 12 games. Last year he had only 15 in a full season. We expect him to return to ’07 form.
San Diego Defense/ST- With the return of Shawne Merriman and a 100 percent healthy Antonio Cromartie, the Chargers have a chance to return to ’07 form and be a top-5 fantasy defense. Their first round pick out of Northern Illinois, Larry English, is another nasty, athletic presence expected to bring pressure. Merriman said on his Twitter page back in April: "Love our draft choice let's bring the heat."
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