Let’s find out if you are “this guy”… Are your chances of winning the regular season first or second place cash similar to the chances of Matt Jones not doing at least one line of cocaine during his three-week suspension? Are you getting the same feeling when you look at your team, as you did when you looked at last month’s 401K statement?  Trust me, if you aren’t going to get any regular season cash but are still in a decent position to make the playoffs, then you need to start preparing for the postseason.  The Playoff Trick-or-Treat Series will help you sweep the big playoff prize out from under the regular season top hulks.

First I’ll show you a method I use to gather the correct information to forecast fantasy playoff performance.  There are a couple resources from very trusted fantasy web sites that I use.  One is the Football Outsiders Pass Defense Rankings adjusted by the strength of pass offenses the defense has faced so far.  I also use FF Today’s Fantasy Points Allowed vs. QBs spreadsheet.  I find the average rank of both these sources and then re-rank them accordingly based on their average rank.  I think it is important to not only factor in defense rankings, adjusted for the offenses they’ve played, but also combine that with standard fantasy points allowed.  Here are the Results and here is my summary:

TRICKS

Matt Schaub: Bite size Tootsie Roll- Plays @GB, TEN, and @OAK 
Obviously those first two games are really tough but even the game against Oakland is no picnic. Oakland has played well since their Week 1 disaster against the Broncos.  Yes they got blown up by Drew Brees in Week 6 for three TDs, but who hasn’t?  Asomugha can slow down Andre Johnson and the Raiders proved they can stop a great passing attack when they owned Philip Rivers Week 4.

David Garrard: Candy corn- Plays @CHI, GB, and IND
By the time Garrard faces the Bears, their secondary should be fully healthy. Corey Graham, who has been starting in Nathan Vasher’s place, has played great and now will be a real strong nickel corner and some think he will remain the starter opposite Charles Tillman.  Green Bay and Indianapolis have both been spider webs against the pass all year, but bad versus the run, so expect the Jags to pound the ball in those matchups. 

Eli Manning: Box of raisins- Plays PHI, @DAL, and CAR 
Dallas might seem like a decent matchup for Manning, but you have to factor in the fact Wade Phillips is now calling the defense for the Cowboys and they responded big time against the Bucs.  Philly and Carolina are both top-6 against the pass.  On top of it all, Eli always fades in the second half of the season. 

Tony Romo: The dreaded Apple- Plays @PIT, NYG, and BAL
Romo has the worst playoff schedule of any quarterback.  Now he has proved to be quite matchup indifferent during his time as a starting quarterback.  That being said, this is truly a dreadful span of games. Not to mention, will his pinky affect him?  You can’t expect Romo to put up numbers much better than average in the playoffs. Prepare for this accordingly. Hint: Owners might be thinking they’re “buying low” on Romo if they offer before he returns.  If you can pick up a Rodgers or Rivers, make it happen.

Ben Roethlisberger: F*ckin toothbrush!!!- Plays DAL, @BAL, and @TEN  Roethlisberger has the second worst playoff schedule for quarterbacks.  Look, he may have a good game against the Cowboys, he’s a good quarterback. But if you move on past the first round of the playoffs, get ready to bench Big Ben, that’s all I gotta say. 

MINI TRICKS (QB2's)

Jason Campbell- @BAL, @CIN, and PHI = Sixth toughest playoff schedule
Derek Anderson- @TEN, @PHI, and CIN = Eighth toughest
Joe Flacco- WAS, PIT, and @DAL = Third toughest

Look Out...

 
Although Phillip Rivers schedule ranking is basically smack dab in the middle at 15, that ranking is a bit deceiving.  Oakland is ranked 23rd against the pass, but they shutdown Rivers last time these squads collided. Aside from Oakland, he faces KC and TB.  KC is bad against the pass, of course, but when teams get rolling running the ball against them, they tend to just keep pounding, which could minimize Rivers fantasy stats against KC. 

Kurt Warner: Fun size Butterfinger- Plays STL, MIN, and @NE
Warner just roughed up the Panthers, who prior to this game, had not given up more than 231 yards in game.  It’s plain and clear he doesn’t have a problem cutting up good D’s.  This schedule wouldn’t scare anyone, let alone Warner and the gang.  Minnesota is actually much better than everyone thinks against the pass but overall there will be no drop-off in the playoffs for Warner.   

Aaron Rodgers: Regular size Starburst- Plays HOU, @JAC, and @ CHI 
With this schedule, Rodgers has the ability to lead you to the championship game and then in the championship, keep you afloat.  Not much else to say, feel good inserting him against those pitiful Texans for your first round match up. 

Drew Brees: Reese’s peanut butter cups (Full size)- Plays ATL, @CHI, and @ DET  Brees will rape Atlanta and Detroit without effort.  I do predict that the Bears will be better than what they’ve shown against the pass in the second half of the season, but that doesn’t mean Brees won’t put up nice fantasy numbers against them.  All around, a great schedule for the best quarterback in the land.   

Peyton Manning: King size Snickers!- Plays CIN, DET, and @JAC 
Peyton has the easiest playoff schedule for Quarterbacks. 

MINI TREATS (QB2’s)

Matt Cassel- @SEA, @OAK, and ARI = Sixth easiest
Marc Bulger- @ARI, SEA, and SF = Ninth easiest
Kyle Orton- JAC, NO, and GB = At home every game

Mad Scientist costume…

If you want to get real smart and clever for the playoffs, here’s a nice technique.  The best QB 2-headed monster for the playoffs is a Jake Delhomme / Gus Ferotte combination.  Start Frerotte Week 14 against Detroit, Delhomme Week 15 against Denver, and then Frerotte again Week 16 against Atlanta. 

Running back and wide receiver Trick-or-Treats coming soon…