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Playoff Trick-or-Treat Series: Running Backs
Kerry Dolan
11/3/08

If you aren’t going to get any regular season cash but are still in a decent position to make the playoffs, then you need to start preparing for the postseason.  The Playoff Trick-or-Treat Series will help you sweep the big playoff prize out from under the regular season top hulks.

First I’ll show you a method I use to gather the correct information to forecast fantasy playoff performance.  There are a couple resources from very trusted fantasy web sites that I use.  One is the Football Outsiders Rush Defense Rankings adjusted by the strength of rush offenses the defense has faced so far.  I also use FF Today’s Fantasy Points Allowed vs. RBs spreadsheet.  I find the average rank of both these sources and then re-rank them accordingly based on their average rank.  I think it is important to not only factor in defense rankings, adjusted for the offenses they’ve played, but also combine that with standard fantasy points allowed.  Here are the Results and here is my summary:

TRICKS

Clinton Portis: Bite size Tootsie Roll- Plays BAL, @CIN, and PHI 
Portis starts the playoffs with the worst possible matchup against the Ravens.  It ends Week 16 against Philly, another top-5 run D. Although Portis was able to play well against the Eagles earlier in the season, it is not likely he will repeat that performance.  

Willis McGahee: Candy corn- Plays WAS, PIT, and @DAL
Those waiting for Willis to get healthy and make a strong run at the end of the season better develop a new plan of attack. The Ravens schedule is tough against the run for the fantasy playoffs.  Rice and McClain are poor plays as well.  The only hopeful matchup is the Week 16 game against the Cowboys, and they are still in the top half against the run. 

Willie Parker: Box of raisins- Plays DAL, @BAL, and @ TEN 
Like McGahee owners, Parker owners that are waiting for Fast Willie to come back and salvage their seasons in the playoffs, are in trouble. When you’ll need him the most, Weeks 15 and 16, he’ll be facing back-to-back top-10 rush defenses.  Mewelde Moore is also a weak play.

Michael Turner: The dreaded Apple- Plays @NO, TB, and @MIN
Everyone knows Turner has struggled like a fish on land against good run D’s.  He really doesn’t see any easy foes in the playoffs so nobody should expect much from Turner.  What owners should do is, wait for Turner to bust a huge game and then sell.  He has a good chance to do just that in the next four weeks because he sees plenty of weak defenses. 

Marion Barber: F*ckin Toothbrush!!!– Plays @PIT, NYG, and BAL 
This is brutal.  Barber takes on the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses against the run in the fantasy playoffs.  His “light” matchup is against the Giants, who are ranked ninth against the run.  There’s no reason to think Barber will be a guy that can carry you through the playoffs, even if he has carried you through the regular season. 

Other TRICKS

Jamal Lewis: Plays @TEN, @PHI, and CIN= Sixth toughest playoff schedule  
Tim Hightower: Plays STL, MIN, and @NE= Tenth toughest
Carolina RBs: Plays TB, DEN, and @NYG= Ninth toughest

TREATS

Matt Forte: Fun size Skittles- Plays JAC, NO, and GB
It’s going to be cold in Chicago for all three of these games and you know the Monsters of the Midway are destined to play smash-mouth football.  Jacksonville and New Orleans are pretty good against the run but not teams that can shut anybody down. 

Joseph Addai: Fun size Butterfinger- Plays CIN, DET, and @JAC
Addai should be in good health by the time the playoffs roll around.  Rhodes has played sound in reserve because the Colts line is now healthy.  So the fact Addai’s playoff sched is moneybags and the Colts offense is now better in general, leads you to believe he will be the scoring-machine-hulk we know well, just in time for the playoffs.           

LaDanian Tomlinson: Reese’s cups (Full size)- Plays OAK, @KC, and @TB
This fantasy folk-hero has a chance to ride off into the sunset this season.  It appears his best days are behind him but the fact he gets Oakland and Kanasas City in playoffs is music to owners ears.  Yes Tampa Bay is certainly no easy task for any RB, but they have shown weaknesses lately.  Tomlinson can certainly get you to the finals.  He should get over 100 yards and a TD minimum in Weeks 14 and 15.

Ronnie Brown: Full size Starburst- Plays @BUF, SF, and @KC 
None of these three teams are stout against the run and the best part about it is Kansas City is who Brown draws in the fantasy championship.  If you’re lucky enough to get to the championship, you’ll go into the game as the favorite if you own Brown.        

Adrian Peterson: King size Snickers!- Plays @DET, @ARI, and ATL
The best running back in the NFL gets handed the easiest fantasy playoff schedule.  Seriously, be scared if you’re playing a team with AP at anytime during the playoffs.  

Other TREATS

Reggie Bush: Plays ATL, @CHI, and @DET = If fully healthy, will get hulky
Maurice Jones–Drew: Plays @CHI, GB, and IND = Tenth easiest playoff schedule
Earnest Graham: Plays @CAR, @ATL, and SD = Sixth easiest schedule

DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH PREDICTIONS

Ryan Torain: The Broncos have the second easiest schedule against the run in the playoffs.  If our projections about Torain are accurate, then he could be one of your team’s top assets that could lead you to the big cash.  He’s available in most leagues.  

Michael Bush:  Oakland has the fourth easiest schedule in the playoffs.  Darren McFadden now has boots on both feet.  He might not be fully healthy for the rest of the year.  As the Raiders get closer to the end of the season they might shift the majority of the workload to Bush over Fargas to see what the kid is made of.   

 






 
 
 
 
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