Using pass defense strength of schedule to determine wide receiver value can often be deceiving.  For example, a team might be a bad pass defense overall but against No. 1 WRs they turn out to be quite good.  An example is the New York Jets.  For yards given up to WRs in 2008 they were middle of the pack at 15, but surprisingly the Jets were second overall against No. 1 WRs.  Pass defenses have strengths and weaknesses. The Jets strength is Darrell Revis, one of the best cornerbacks in the game.  Now if you look at the Jets No. 2 WR strength of schedule, they were second easiest last year.  Again, pass defenses have strengths and weaknesses.    

I’m going to take a look at the No. 2 WR strength of schedule for every team in this edition of Under the Microscope.  Here’s the trick though, you cannot disregard a receiver simply because his matchups are tough.  For example, based off final 2008 stats, SD’s No. 1 WR schedule difficulty entering 2009 is the toughest in the league.  That should not turn you away from Vincent Jackson because in 2008 he faced the forth toughest schedule Vs. No. 1 WRs and he did well.  This means his schedule from last year to this year is not changing that much and therefore should not have an impact on his fantasy stats.   

Take a look at the Texans No. 2 WR strength of schedule.  It was tough last year, eighth overall, but in 2009 it gets much easier, 22nd overall.  This means Kevin Walter (Texans No. 2 WR) will benefit from a positive rank change.  Just as a positive rank change is good, a negative rank change is bad.  Check out No 1. WRs Under the Microscope if you havent already.

This is good news for…

Anthony Gonzalez- So many positives for Gonzalez going into this season.  Peyton Manning gets off by exploiting matchups and Gonzalez will assume his first year opposite Reggie Wayne with the second easiest No. 2 WR schedule difficulty in the league.  It is becoming inevitable that A Gonz will have a breakout season. 

Kevin Walter- Produced a great season last year considering the fact Walter saw the eighth toughest No. 2 WR strength of schedule.  Now the matchups will loosen up as Walter faces the 22nd toughest strength of schedule.  He should generate no less than last year’s yardage total.  His TD total is not so clear.   

Chris Chambers- He may be the ultimate forgotten former hulk.  Chambers was on a TD scoring tear last year through five games before getting injured.  Now a definite second WR target, SD goes from the 13th toughest to the 28th toughest No. 2 WR strength of schedule.  With V. Jax seeing extremely tight matchups as SD’s No. 1 WR, Chambers should see a production boost if Rivers can exploit weaknesses like a true hulk.

Nate Washington- Gets his first shot as a starter with the Titans this year.  The Titans No. 2 WR strength of schedule is sixth easiest in the league so we will see what Washington is made of.  Like Gage, his upside is limited being on the Titans.

Sydney Rice/ Percy Harvin- The Vikings No. 2 WR schedule difficulty gains a hefty positive change compared to last year.  The question is who will be the second targeted WR for the Vikings?  I expect it to be Harvin earlier than you think.  Coach Brad Childress compared Harvin’s explosiveness to Adrian Peterson.  Right now he is my favorite rookie wideout

Mike Walker- Gains the largest positive swing in No. 2 WR schedule difficulty.  Walker is a legit sleeper candidate and this just adds more reason to believe in him.  He’s a nasty late round grab.

This is bad news for…

Wes Welker- Sees much harder matchups this year as a No. 2 WR.  We will find out if it is McDaniels or Belicheck who is behind the effective usage of Welker.  Welker does get Brady back and overall that is good for him but this data suggests Moss will benefit much more than Welker.

Michael Jenkins- Faced the fourth toughest No. 2 WR strength of schedule last year.  He did well considering the difficult matchups but Jenkins is getting drafted as a possible breakout WR.  This year he will have the toughest No. 2 WR strength of schedule overall.  That and the fact he should see even less targets now that Tony G is in town, make him nothing more than a weekly TD prayer.  The yards will be significantly lacking.

Davone Bess- We like Bess’s skills but this extreme negative change in No. 2 WR schedule difficulty might make it tough to breakout.  Now it becomes clear why Camarillo and Bess received so many targets last season.  While Ginn was facing tough matchups, Camarillo or Bess (whoever was the starting WR2) saw easy matchups.  Based off this research, this year it should be Ginn seeing the easier matchups.  If Ginn does breakout, a slow start for Bess could be in store. 

David Clowney/ Chansi Stuckey- You probably weren’t thinking about drafting either of them anyway, but if for some reason they look attractive late in a deep league, lay off.   The NYJ No. 2 WR strength of schedule swings from the second easiest to the sixth hardest.      

Other WRs

We’ve gone through the No. 1’s and No. 2’s so now I will briefly point out some other receivers that are in solid offenses that see nice strength of schedule outlooks.  If you want to see the chart of Other WR strength of schedule change, just email.

Pierre Garcon- The favorite to steal the desirable No. 3 WR spot in the Colts offense, also sees one of the easier “other” WR strength of schedules.   

Dwayne Jarrett- Starts out the season as the Panther’s No. 3 and will see weak matchups.  He also has a shot to overtake Muhammad later in the season as the No. 2.  Great deep league stash with nice size.

Jacoby Jones- Texan’s HC Gary Kubiak has indicated an improvement in maturity for Jones so far in training camp.  Jones was on our radar last year.  He is in a cream of the crop offense that could be looking for some new juice this season and that could come from Jones.  Favorable “other” WR schedule of course.

Robert Meachem- Brees says Meachem could be playing more this season because he is looking great thus far in training camp.  He would really have to shine to overtake Henderson as the Saints third WR target but the former first round selection has the talent to do it. Sched is looking good

 *The strength of schedules were assembled using 2008 No. 2 and Other WR data from Football Outsiders.