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Normal |
Defense-Adjusted |
| Rank |
Player |
Squad |
T/G |
YPT |
TPTD |
FFPts/G |
YPT |
TPTD |
FFPts/G |
| 1 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
JAC |
19.8 |
5.0 |
16 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
12 |
20.6 |
| 2 |
Frank Gore |
SF |
15.7 |
6.3 |
15 |
16.2 |
6.6 |
9 |
20.4 |
| 3 |
Chris Johnson |
TEN |
20.8 |
6.6 |
28 |
18.3 |
6.7 |
24 |
19.1 |
| 4 |
Pierre Thomas |
NO |
19.0 |
6.7 |
13 |
21.7 |
6.5 |
18 |
18.6 |
| 5 |
Adrian Peterson |
MIN |
23.0 |
5.1 |
18 |
19.2 |
4.7 |
21 |
17.6 |
| 6 |
Cedric Benson |
CIN |
22.5 |
4.6 |
45 |
13.4 |
5.2 |
35 |
15.5 |
| 7 |
Marion Barber |
DAL |
15.7 |
6.4 |
16 |
16.1 |
6.6 |
21 |
14.9 |
| 8 |
Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
19.5 |
5.4 |
20 |
16.5 |
5.2 |
25 |
14.9 |
| 9 |
Kevin Smith |
DET |
22.5 |
3.7 |
30 |
12.9 |
3.7 |
21 |
14.6 |
| 10 |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
23.8 |
4.6 |
70 |
12.9 |
4.5 |
44 |
13.9 |
| 11 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
PIT |
13.0 |
6.4 |
20 |
12.3 |
6.7 |
15 |
13.9 |
| 12 |
Fred Jackson |
BUF |
22.0 |
5.6 |
88 |
13.8 |
5.7 |
108 |
13.7 |
| 13 |
Joseph Addai |
IND |
16.0 |
4.4 |
21 |
11.6 |
4.8 |
16 |
13.7 |
| 14 |
Mike Bell |
NO |
23.0 |
5.2 |
46 |
14.9 |
5.0 |
65 |
13.6 |
| 15 |
Steve Slaton |
HOU |
17.5 |
4.5 |
35 |
10.8 |
4.9 |
25 |
12.9 |
| 16 |
Ryan Grant |
GB |
19.0 |
4.5 |
38 |
11.5 |
4.5 |
30 |
12.3 |
| 17 |
Jerome Harrison |
CLE |
20.7 |
4.3 |
62 |
11.0 |
4.5 |
50 |
11.8 |
| 18 |
Matt Forte |
CHI |
21.0 |
4.3 |
84 |
10.6 |
4.4 |
52 |
11.7 |
| 19 |
DeAngelo Williams |
CAR |
16.7 |
5.3 |
20 |
13.8 |
5.1 |
32 |
11.6 |
| 20 |
Willis McGahee |
BAL |
11.0 |
5.8 |
6 |
16.9 |
5.3 |
11 |
11.5 |
| 21 |
Julius Jones |
SEA |
17.0 |
4.6 |
23 |
12.4 |
4.6 |
27 |
11.5 |
| 22 |
Tim Hightower |
ARI |
17.3 |
5.4 |
52 |
11.4 |
5.5 |
60 |
11.2 |
| 23 |
Ricky Williams |
MIA |
14.5 |
5.3 |
19 |
12.3 |
5.2 |
25 |
11.0 |
| 24 |
Donald Brown |
IND |
10.8 |
6.0 |
22 |
9.4 |
6.5 |
16 |
11.0 |
| 25 |
Thomas Jones |
NYJ |
15.8 |
3.7 |
21 |
10.3 |
3.6 |
18 |
10.9 |
| 26 |
Michael Turner |
ATL |
22.0 |
3.5 |
33 |
11.7 |
3.4 |
40 |
10.8 |
| 27 |
Darren Sproles |
SD |
13.0 |
5.5 |
26 |
10.2 |
5.9 |
26 |
10.7 |
| 28 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NYG |
20.5 |
3.7 |
30 |
10.0 |
3.6 |
38 |
10.6 |
| 29 |
Ray Rice |
BAL |
16.3 |
6.6 |
65 |
12.2 |
6.0 |
119 |
10.6 |
| 30 |
Correll Buckhalter |
DEN |
11.3 |
8.1 |
45 |
10.6 |
7.8 |
74 |
9.7 |
| 31 |
Willie Parker |
PIT |
18.7 |
3.6 |
56 |
8.8 |
3.8 |
43 |
9.7 |
| 32 |
Felix Jones |
DAL |
7.3 |
10.5 |
22 |
9.7 |
10.8 |
29 |
9.5 |
| 33 |
Jamal Lewis |
CLE |
14.5 |
5.2 |
80 |
8.6 |
5.4 |
65 |
9.2 |
| 34 |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
16.0 |
4.3 |
32 |
9.9 |
4.3 |
46 |
8.9 |
| 35 |
Carnell Williams |
TB |
12.5 |
5.4 |
25 |
9.8 |
5.1 |
30 |
8.8 |
| 36 |
Clinton Portis |
WAS |
19.0 |
4.0 |
50 |
9.9 |
3.8 |
74 |
8.8 |
| 37 |
Knowshon Moreno |
DEN |
16.0 |
4.4 |
32 |
10.1 |
4.3 |
52 |
8.7 |
| 38 |
Leon Washington |
NYJ |
14.0 |
4.5 |
40 |
8.4 |
4.4 |
34 |
8.7 |
| 39 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG |
13.0 |
5.5 |
50 |
8.7 |
5.3 |
64 |
8.2 |
| 40 |
Fred Taylor |
NE |
11.8 |
4.6 |
24 |
8.5 |
4.5 |
26 |
8.1 |
| 41 |
LeSean McCoy |
PHI |
13.3 |
4.9 |
40 |
8.5 |
4.9 |
58 |
7.9 |
| 42 |
Reggie Bush |
NO |
12.5 |
5.4 |
50 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
71 |
7.6 |
| 43 |
Tashard Choice |
DAL |
12.0 |
4.7 |
48 |
7.1 |
4.8 |
64 |
6.9 |
| 44 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
11.0 |
3.2 |
22 |
6.5 |
3.4 |
22 |
6.8 |
| 45 |
Larry Johnson |
KC |
19.8 |
3.0 |
80 |
7.4 |
3.0 |
133 |
6.8 |
| 46 |
Jonathan Stewart |
CAR |
10.0 |
5.4 |
40 |
6.9 |
5.2 |
65 |
6.2 |
| 47 |
Derrick Ward |
TB |
10.3 |
4.2 |
31 |
6.3 |
3.9 |
38 |
5.7 |
| 48 |
Darren McFadden |
OAK |
13.5 |
3.7 |
54 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
96 |
5.5 |
| 49 |
Michael Bush |
OAK |
9.3 |
4.5 |
37 |
5.6 |
4.2 |
66 |
4.8 |
| 50 |
Beanie Wells |
ARI |
5.3 |
4.4 |
52 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
60 |
2.9 |
This data would tell the whole story if from now till the end of the season, all these backs faced the exact same average defense every week, but they don’t. Now I can use these adjusted stats to project RB stats for the rest of the season. That’s the basis behind this analysis. 1)Make sure the stats aren’t skewed, so you’re not making any over or underestimations, and then 2) project into the future. This next chart will be the forecasted stats for the rest of the fantasy football year, weeks 5-16. Basically if you see a players stats increase from the weeks 1-4 adjusted stats chart above, to the forecasted weeks 5-16 stats, it means their schedule vs. RBs gets easier. But first, I made some discretionary changes.
-Fred Jackson’s 22 touches per game were reduced to 16 because Lynch is back and could actually reduce Jackson’s touches even further.
-Matt Forte’s base touches per touchdown (TPTD) was lowered. I think Forte’s hamstring problem slowed him at the beginning of the season and expect a subtle rebound similar to Ryan Grant last season.
-Similarly adjusted Brandon Jacobs base TPTD. Simply because this guy is one of the rare consistent TD hulk’s of this fantasy generation. Him scoring one TD in over 80 attempts is a fluke.
-Spiked Beanie Wells touches and lowered Hightower’s
-Raised DeAngelo Williams touches. Carolina will soon get the offense revolving around him again
-Raised Knowshon Moreno’s touches. He will capture more plays going forward with Buckhalter to miss a couple weeks.
-Brought down Thomas Jones touches and also TPTD. Anticipation of a partial role for Shonn Greene, whether it is just goal line duties or a larger spot.
-Lowered Mendenhall’s stats overall. He gained the benefits of higher stat adjustments based on defenses faced through the first four games, however he only played a big role in the game against SD, a very weak rush defense. He is still a probable RB2 from here on out.
-Raised Donald Brown’s touches a tad. Should get more as the year goes on.
-Adjusted Frank Gore’s stats and touches a tad. His numbers were skewed based off two outstanding games and, looking ahead he is missing at least the next game. He’s still a top 5-7 RB upon returning. (if full health)
The rest of the stats were forecasted by the mode BACK…PAGE 3
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