| THE BIG PICTURE |
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Weeks 5-16 Forecast |
| Rank |
Player |
Squad |
Touches/G |
YPT |
TPTD |
Total Yards |
TD |
FFPts |
| 1 |
Chris Johnson |
TEN |
20.8 |
6.8 |
20 |
1559 |
11.7 |
225.8 |
| 2 |
Pierre Thomas |
NO |
19.0 |
6.7 |
15 |
1395 |
13.8 |
222.2 |
| 3 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
JAC |
19.8 |
5.5 |
13 |
1194 |
16.8 |
220.3 |
| 4 |
Cedric Benson |
CIN |
22.5 |
5.5 |
30 |
1352 |
8.2 |
184.4 |
| 5 |
Frank Gore |
SF |
15.7 |
6.4 |
14 |
1101 |
15.6 |
181.9 |
| 6 |
Adrian Peterson |
MIN |
23.0 |
4.6 |
24 |
1175 |
10.6 |
181.3 |
| 7 |
Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
19.5 |
5.3 |
25 |
1131 |
8.4 |
163.7 |
| 8 |
Marion Barber |
DAL |
15.7 |
6.7 |
22 |
1155 |
7.9 |
162.6 |
| 9 |
DeAngelo Williams |
CAR |
17.7 |
5.1 |
34 |
1084 |
6.3 |
146.3 |
| 10 |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
23.8 |
4.4 |
57 |
1141 |
4.6 |
141.7 |
| 11 |
Ryan Grant |
GB |
19.0 |
4.8 |
30 |
994 |
6.9 |
140.6 |
| 12 |
Michael Turner |
ATL |
22.0 |
3.5 |
32 |
912 |
8.2 |
140.2 |
| 13 |
Kevin Smith |
DET |
22.5 |
3.5 |
30 |
875 |
8.4 |
137.8 |
| 14 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
PIT |
13.0 |
6.1 |
18 |
866 |
7.7 |
133.1 |
| 15 |
Matt Forte |
CHI |
21.0 |
4.4 |
47 |
1016 |
4.9 |
131.1 |
| 16 |
Jerome Harrison |
CLE |
20.7 |
4.5 |
49 |
1027 |
4.7 |
130.6 |
| 17 |
Donald Brown |
IND |
12.0 |
6.5 |
18 |
860 |
7.0 |
128.3 |
| 18 |
Steve Slaton |
HOU |
17.5 |
4.6 |
29 |
891 |
6.5 |
128.3 |
| 19 |
Julius Jones |
SEA |
17.0 |
4.6 |
27 |
865 |
6.8 |
127.4 |
| 20 |
Knowshon Moreno |
DEN |
20.0 |
4.4 |
43 |
964 |
5.1 |
127.1 |
| 21 |
Joseph Addai |
IND |
14.0 |
4.8 |
18 |
743 |
8.4 |
124.9 |
| 22 |
Darren Sproles |
SD |
13.0 |
5.7 |
20 |
810 |
7.0 |
123.2 |
| 23 |
Thomas Jones |
NYJ |
15.3 |
3.6 |
16 |
597 |
10.5 |
123.0 |
| 24 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NYG |
20.5 |
3.5 |
49 |
800 |
7.0 |
121.9 |
| 25 |
Ricky Williams |
MIA |
14.5 |
5.2 |
25 |
837 |
6.3 |
121.6 |
| 26 |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
16.0 |
4.5 |
38 |
865 |
5.0 |
116.6 |
| 27 |
Willis McGahee |
BAL |
11.0 |
5.0 |
14 |
608 |
8.6 |
112.3 |
| 28 |
Ray Rice |
BAL |
16.3 |
5.7 |
146 |
1023 |
1.2 |
109.6 |
| 29 |
Clinton Portis |
WAS |
19.0 |
3.9 |
46 |
806 |
4.5 |
107.7 |
| 30 |
LeSean McCoy |
PHI |
14.0 |
5.1 |
48 |
855 |
3.5 |
106.6 |
| 31 |
Felix Jones |
DAL |
7.3 |
11.0 |
31 |
887 |
2.6 |
104.4 |
| 32 |
Fred Jackson |
BUF |
15.0 |
5.7 |
111 |
943 |
1.5 |
103.2 |
| 33 |
Tim Hightower |
ARI |
13.0 |
5.7 |
75 |
893 |
2.1 |
101.8 |
| 34 |
Leon Washington |
NYJ |
14.0 |
4.4 |
27 |
677 |
5.6 |
101.4 |
| 35 |
Marshawn Lynch |
BUF |
15.0 |
4.5 |
41 |
748 |
4.0 |
99.0 |
| 36 |
Beanie Wells |
ARI |
14.0 |
4.7 |
51 |
790 |
3.3 |
98.9 |
| 37 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
13.0 |
3.3 |
17 |
467 |
8.3 |
96.6 |
| 38 |
Carnell Williams |
TB |
12.5 |
5.0 |
33 |
694 |
4.1 |
94.3 |
| 39 |
Willie Parker |
PIT |
16.0 |
3.8 |
40 |
673 |
4.4 |
93.8 |
| 40 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG |
13.0 |
5.3 |
49 |
754 |
2.9 |
93.0 |
| 41 |
Jamal Lewis |
CLE |
13.0 |
5.4 |
63 |
770 |
2.3 |
90.6 |
| 42 |
Correll Buckhalter |
DEN |
9.0 |
8.0 |
60 |
794 |
1.6 |
89.2 |
| 43 |
Reggie Bush |
NO |
12.5 |
5.4 |
60 |
739 |
2.3 |
87.7 |
| 44 |
Michael Bush |
OAK |
15.0 |
4.2 |
57 |
695 |
2.9 |
86.9 |
| 45 |
Derrick Ward |
TB |
14.0 |
3.9 |
41 |
595 |
3.7 |
81.9 |
| 46 |
Larry Johnson |
KC |
19.8 |
3.0 |
114 |
649 |
1.9 |
76.3 |
| 47 |
Tashard Choice |
DAL |
12.0 |
4.9 |
67 |
645 |
2.0 |
76.3 |
| 48 |
Jonathan Stewart |
CAR |
10.0 |
5.2 |
67 |
626 |
1.8 |
73.3 |
| 49 |
Darren McFadden |
OAK |
13.5 |
3.5 |
83 |
515 |
1.8 |
62.1 |
| 50 |
Mike Bell |
NO |
8.0 |
5.2 |
55 |
455 |
1.6 |
55.1 |
Wow, I have to say this model has produced some interesting shit. Check out Pierre Thomas in the No. 2 spot. I actually don’t think that’s far out of line. Screw the “borderline RB1” talk. This French bastard is top-5 here on out.
When I first saw Cedric Benson so high up on the list I hated it, but you cannot argue that the guy is getting his touches and has produced against solid rush defenses. Hey he did nearly as well as Adrian Peterson against GB, and did better than Forte for sure. According to the model, his schedule is lighter the rest of the year and if he keeps up the touches its impossible that he doesn’t end up a top 8-10 RB. CIN defense keeps the ball club in .games.
Adrian Peterson is a bit low, coming in at No. 6, but if you add these stats to the ones he already has, it’s a 1600+ total yard, 15-16 TD season. He’s now already seen the beefy part of his schedule. Plus, even looking at this data, you wouldn’t trade him for Chris Johnson or MJD anyway. ( pshh, owners and their “precious” AP)
Next guy I was surprised about was Ryan Grant. I was wondering why he was so high, and then I found it. He faces seven defenses that give up over a 5 YPT. Grant should be able to pick it up looking ahead with few bumps in the road.
The model doesn’t give Matt Forte any TD love, even after I adjusted his base TPTD (touches per touchdown) much closer to what it was last season.
I was looking for Steve Slaton to jump up the board on here. His adjusted stats through four weeks were looking good. I was optimistic, but it appears his schedule doesn’t clear up much the rest of the year. I think what’s probable from Slaton is a ’08 Marshawn Lynch type season. Real solid (bout 1300 total yards, 9 TDs), but not what you expected from a first rounder expected to possibly explode.
Part of the reason I even thought to do this thing is that I wanted to see what Knowshon Moreno could do if he got around 20 touches a game going forward. I thought he could make the top 15 for sure. He barely made the top 20. I think it is partly because he will have a hard time scoring TDs with Peyton Hillis and even Lamont Jordan ahead of him when it comes to goal line carries. Still, I have a feeling about him. Well see what happens this weekend in his first start.
Thomas Jones is hulking in the TD category with 10 in his next 11 games. This is even after I adjusted his touches and TPTD. Perhaps I should have adjusted it more.
If Brandon Jacobs ends up with just 7 TDs from here to the rest of the fantasy year, there are going to be a ton of angry owners.
Ray Rice is a total yards hulk but don’t look for him to start commanding TDs the second half of the year...BACK...FIRST PAGE
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